France announcement of recognizing Palestinian state ‘may cause domino effect’

In response to a media inquiry regarding French President Emmanuel Macron's announcement that France will formally recognize the Palestinian State during a UN meeting in September, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Friday that the Palestinian question is at the heart of the Middle East situation. The only viable way to resolve it lies in the two-State solution.

Guo stated that China supports the upcoming UN high-level conference on the implementation of the two-State solution. "We will continue working with the other member states to end the Gaza conflict, ease the humanitarian crisis, implement the two-State solution, and realize the full, just and lasting settlement of the Palestinian question," Guo said.

In a X post on late Thursday (local time), Macron announced that France will officially recognize the State of Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September, stressing the "historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East," which would make France the first G7 nation to do so.

"The urgent thing today is that the war in Gaza stops and the civilian population is saved,″ Macron said, calling for an immediate cease-fire, the release of all hostages, and large-scale humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza. 

In a formal letter to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Macron said the urgent need is to achieve the only viable solution (two-state solution) to meet the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people, put an end to terrorism and all forms of violence, and ensure lasting peace and security for Israel and the entire region. 

In response, Abbas's deputy, Hussein al-Sheikh, thanked the French leader, saying "This position reflects France's commitment to international law and its support for the Palestinian people's right to self-determination and the establishment of our independent state," according to Sheikh's X post. 

Hamas, according to Al Jazeera, also praised Macron's announcement in a statement as a "positive step in the right direction toward doing justice to our oppressed Palestinian people and supporting their legitimate right to self-determination."

Al Jazeera said the move makes France the largest and arguably most influential country in Europe to move toward recognizing a Palestinian state, after EU members Norway, Ireland and Spain indicated they would also begin the same process. It added that at least 142 countries out of the 193 members of the UN currently recognize or plan to recognize a Palestinian state.

Cui Hongjian, a professor of the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said that France's stance reflects the autonomy of its major-power diplomacy. 

France's shift from initial hesitation and ambiguity to increasingly clear support was backed by the growing consensus that sympathy for Palestine and support for the "two-state solution" are gradually becoming a consensus among more European countries, Cui said.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez welcomed Macron's announcement in an X post, stressing that "the two-state solution is the only solution." 

In a statement on Thursday, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he would hold an "emergency call" with French and German leaders on Friday to discuss "what we can do urgently to stop the killing," according to the BBC. Statehood is an "inalienable right of the Palestinian people", Starmer said, adding that a ceasefire would "put us on a path to the recognition of a Palestinian state and a two-state solution," the BBC report. 

In a joint statement released on Monday, Western countries including UK, France, Australia, Canada and 21 other countries, plus the EU, have called for an immediate end to the war on Gaza, saying that suffering there had "reached new depths."

According to a senior official in the French presidency reached by CNN, the Elysee is confident that it won't be the only ones recognizing Palestine in September.

France's announcement is likely to trigger domino effect of Palestinian state recognition, Cui said. 

It is possible that in September, some countries may follow suit and align with France in expressing their stance, said the expert, noting that there will also be countries that do not publicly declare their position, however, their stance may further tilt toward France in practice.

Macron's announcement came on the same day that the US and Israel walked away from Gaza cease-fire talks in Qatar, with US special envoy Steve Witkoff accusing Hamas of showing "a lack of desire to reach a cease-fire in Gaza," according to the New York Times. 

Regarding Macron's announcement, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X that the US "strongly rejects" the French plan, as the "reckless decision only serves Hamas propaganda and sets back peace." 

Meanwhile, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned Macron's announcement. "Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became," according to The Times of Israel's report. 

Cui believed that Europe and the US are increasingly at odds, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is further evidence of this divergence. 

An increasing number of Western countries have come to realize that Israel's actions have far exceeded the scope of what was initially claimed as self-defense and are moving toward geopolitical ambition of shaping a new Middle East order that favors Israel, said Cui. 

Meanwhile, in the US, the Republican administration, which appears to have stronger ties with Jewish interest groups compared to the previous Democratic administration, is moving toward more explicit support for Israel, Cui noted. 

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Thursday that the Palestinians are facing "the biggest humanitarian catastrophe" of their time amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the West Bank, due to the failure of global efforts to deter Israeli actions, Xinhua reported. 

The Israeli military campaign in Gaza, ongoing since October 2023, has resulted in more than 59,210 Palestinian deaths and over 143,040 injuries, according to Gaza-based health authorities. 

Cui believes that France's announcement carries positive implications for the broader Middle East. 

If this [pro-Palestine] trend continues among Western nations, it will likely generate greater pressure on Israel globally, including mounting condemnation in international public opinion and practical moves of opposition, said Cui, adding that this shift may eventually impact on the US decisionmaking.